Polis

• The sharpest rise in government debt since records began, combined with very loose monetary policy and the onset of catch-up effects, particularly in Asia, have led to the expected stabilization of the economy. Some sectors (tourism, gastronomy, etc.) will only recover once vaccination has been introduced.
• Even after the coronavirus pandemic, the mix of instruments consisting of more debt and money printing will continue to be used. The support could be used in the USA, for example, to avert the climate catastrophe through green technologies.
• Increasing nationalist populism continues to be a growing problem that will lead to a long-term loss of prosperity through isolation, higher tariffs, capital controls and poor government spending policies.

Development

• The implicit loss of central bank independence has led to a perfectly orchestrated interplay between governments and central banks during the coronavirus pandemic, in which new government spending is continuously financed by buying up bonds.
• The interaction will become even more intense in the future, as the expenditure incurred cannot be repaid through higher profits, a demographic dividend or higher taxes.
• Inflation and capital market bubbles will continue to increase in the future. Even beyond the entire bond market, which is currently already a huge capital market bubble that is being kept alive by the central banks.
• A potential President Biden will lead to more stability overall through his style, without fundamentally deviating from "America First". Political instability will be generated primarily by nationalist populists.

Investments

• Gold should benefit in an inflationary environment - with large fluctuations - especially as it has no opportunity costs due to the low interest rate environment (bond interest rate at zero).
• In addition to low interest rates, non-luxury residential real estate should continue to benefit due to increased demand for living space. The assessment of commercial real estate is becoming increasingly complicated (hotels, retail in pedestrian zones, etc.) and should be left to specialists.
• For bond investments, only inflation-indexed bonds are recommended. Otherwise, bonds offer a negative interest rate or a low interest rate and a credit rating that depends on the goodwill of the central banks.
• Equities, which are not overvalued globally, offer a significant additional return of up to 5-6% p.a. over a 10-year horizon compared to bonds and the money market and therefore a lower risk. They also benefit from the likelihood of rising inflation, in contrast to nominal investments such as bonds and the money market.
• In the longer term, a President Biden is better for the stock market; in the short term, Trump could be the candidate of choice for the capital markets, as his participants are focusing on the tax cuts from 2018.

Plateau

• Bonds are not safe investments, never really were, and are absolutely dependent on (monetary) political support. If this support disappears, the result will be a bloodbath on the bond markets.
• The combination of the recovery already underway in China, the massive investment programs planned by President Biden, declining global uncertainty and perhaps the introduction of a vaccine against Covid-19 gives us a positive outlook for the future.
• An asset mix of inflation-indexed bonds, equities, low-priced residential real estate, gold and private equity, weighted according to individual risk-bearing capacity, can offer potential returns of 5-6% p.a. over the next 10 years. This asset mix is inherently inflation-proof.
• The three horsemen of the apocalypse (cost-cutting, government and monetary support measures) will also come to the rescue in future crises. This means that every future crisis will become a buying opportunity, unless a bubble scenario prevails. However, this currently only applies to bonds and parts of the residential real estate market.