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John Kornblum negotiated the exchange of agents as well as the Quadripartite Agreement. As a diplomat, he represented the USA in Bonn and Berlin as well as before NATO in Brussels. He later became involved in business, was head of an American investment bank in Germany and still oversees German DAX companies today. His immense political foresight remains directly linked to Germany through the historic sentence he wrote for Ronald Reagan's 1987 speech at the Brandenburg Gate: "Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall!"

In an interview with Torsten Murke, John Kornblum answers our questions about the upcoming US presidential election. We were particularly interested in his views on four major topics: What do the two candidates stand for? How will Joe Biden's possible election affect transatlantic and international relations as a whole? Can Biden overcome the deep divisions in US society? Who will win the election and what will happen afterwards?

What do the two candidates stand for?

• The positions of the two candidates could not be more different. Trump stands for the perceived and actual losers of globalization, modernization, the changing composition of the population, older people and those who live in rural areas. Biden stands for academics, the working class, urban populations and minorities.
• For Biden, Kamala Harris is an important factor, as she can appeal to the growing minority population as well as young voters. At the same time, she has been perceived as a tough prosecutor who cannot be accused of advocating left-wing positions even as a senator.
• Of course, Biden and Trump also differ fundamentally in their attitude to the coronavirus pandemic: science, masks and social distancing on the one hand and laissez-faire on the other.
• However, there is more at stake between the two candidates than just a cultural battle: it is a modernization battle between those who have successfully faced up to the new challenges and those who have been unable to come to terms.

How will the possible election of Joe Biden affect transatlantic and international relations as a whole?

• Although Biden has remained vague on many points (e.g. attitude towards China, appointment of the Secretary of State), the climate will be less toxic. Fittingly, it can be assumed that he will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement and also tighten environmental regulation in the US again.
• Relations with Germany will remain very good. The relationship between the two countries has always been subject to major short-term negative fluctuations, for example during the Vietnam War or during the presidency of G.W. Bush. However, the links between the two countries are now more closely interwoven economically than ever before.
• Much more important is the question of Europe's emancipation and positioning in the global context. As long as Europe does not define itself by rejecting the USA, the USA will always be willing to work together with Europe.
• In the Middle East, Biden must try to solve the problem cases of Iran and Syria. His success in doing so will inevitably be linked to the domestic balance of power in the Senate and House of Representatives. The same problem that has already severely restricted Obama.

Can Biden overcome the deep divisions in US society?

• Biden will try to overcome the divide and position himself as bipartisan and consensus-oriented. To this end, he is also prepared to include 2-3 Republicans in the government, as well as left-wing Democrats. However, this is neither a division through the middle of society nor centrifugal forces at the margins. It is more a question of reintegrating the disillusioned and those left behind back into society.
• US society as a whole, with its institutions such as politics, the press and industry, must find answers to the new challenges. Social media is an example of this: on the one hand, it is a technological miracle. On the other hand, social media is currently increasing the brutalization of interaction and communication through anonymity.
• The resulting social upheavals are comparable to those triggered by the invention of the printing press (Reformation, 30-year war, etc.).
• The USA's attitude towards the Mexican border is comparable to Europe's attitude towards its own southern border. The latter is probably more impermeable. Trump's actions and behavior here are often not very humane. However, there were more deportations under Obama.

Who will win the election and what will happen afterwards?

• The most important and most election forecasts point to Joe Biden as the winner. He leads in the most important swing states, only in Florida is it not yet clear. Even in states like Texas, the Democrats seem to have a chance of winning. Trump, on the other hand, only leads in the southern states and in very rural regions.
• 270 electors are needed for the election. Joe Biden is estimated to have up to 300 electors, whereas Trump has 125.
• Trump is repeatedly attributed with magical powers that make an election outcome like the one in 2016 seem possible, contrary to all forecasts and expert opinions. Additional uncertainty is created by Donald Trump himself and the character traits attributed to him.
• If the election is contested, very complex constitutional rules would come into play, the outcome of which cannot be predicted at present. The simplest solution is simply that Biden wins.
• A red sweep (Republicans win the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives) can be ruled out, while a blue sweep (Democrats win the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives) is considered possible by recognized experts.
• The outcome of the election is immensely important for the Republicans: if they lose, they would be a shadow of their former selves for years to come as they would have to reinvent themselves. The positions currently represented by the party are contrary to the development path of US society.