Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Podcast
You would think that the current market environment would scare most investors. After all, the Fed has just made a gigantic interest rate jump of 0.75 percentage points, which would have caused a tremor on the markets in previous years. However, anyone who looked at share prices, for example on the Dow Jones, the day after the Fed's decision, was forced to realize: Investors struck, and not in short supply. This raises the question: Is this wise?
The short answer: yes. Because we have seen the current development on the markets and in the economy time and again over the past few decades. First, inflation rates rise due to a strong economy, whereupon the central banks intervene and raise interest rates, causing share and bond prices to fall. In addition, the cost of credit for companies increases, the attractiveness of bonds rises and that of shares falls. A few steps further on comes what economists like to warn against: recession.
The inclined investor could now draw the conclusion from this observation that it would be wise to sell shares at the present time, as falling prices are to be expected. But that would be too short-sighted. What all recessions have in common is that the stock markets rise again even before the economy reaches its low point and from their low point to the economic recovery in the three quarters following the economic low point have generated price gains of 23% to 64% - and that in less than 15 months. That is why it is now advisable to buy shares again instead of selling them. You could say: the share is dead, long live the share.
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
In view of inflation, the Putin war and the decisions of the central banks, investing in shares seems like a bad idea. Appearances are deceptive.
You would think that the current market environment would scare most investors. After all, the Fed has just made a gigantic interest rate jump of 0.75 percentage points, which would have caused a tremor on the markets in previous years. However, anyone who looked at share prices, for example on the Dow Jones, the day after the Fed's decision, was forced to realize: Investors struck, and not in short supply. This raises the question: Is this wise?
The short answer: yes. Because we have seen the current development on the markets and in the economy time and again over the past few decades. First, inflation rates rise due to a strong economy, whereupon the central banks intervene and raise interest rates, causing share and bond prices to fall. In addition, the cost of credit for companies increases, the attractiveness of bonds rises and that of shares falls. A few steps further on comes what economists like to warn against: recession.
The inclined investor could now draw the conclusion from this observation that it would be wise to sell shares at the present time, as falling prices are to be expected. But that would be too short-sighted. What all recessions have in common is that the stock markets rise again even before the economy reaches its low point and from their low point to the economic recovery in the three quarters following the economic low point have generated price gains of 23% to 64% - and that in less than 15 months. That is why it is now advisable to buy shares again instead of selling them. You could say: the share is dead, long live the share.
About the author
Reinhard Panse
Reinhard Panse is Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of FINVIA Family Office GmbH. Until February 2020, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board and Chief Investment Officer for HQ Trust GmbH, which is owned by the Harald Quandt family. From 2004 until joining HQ Trust GmbH in 2011, Reinhard Panse was Chief Investment Officer of the UBS Sauerborn business unit created within UBS Deutschland AG. From 2001, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board of Sauerborn Trust AG and its legal predecessors. He was responsible for the investment strategy and played a leading role in the holistic asset management and administration of large private assets. Reinhard Panse began his career by taking over capital market and client support activities at Feri GmbH in 1989, after having founded and managed his own wealth management as managing director.