Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Podcast
28.2.2025
Whether the new US president is pursuing goals beyond maintaining his power and expanding his wealth remains questionable - especially after Trump raised considerable sums from his supporters by issuing a questionable cryptocurrency. His policies are not only undermining democracy in the US and Europe, but are also damaging the global capital markets.
The recently introduced, then withdrawn and now re-announced tariffs against Canada and Mexico have recently caused considerable unrest. In addition, "Tariff Man" Trump is now also threatening European partners with comprehensive punitive tariffs. However, instead of strengthening the domestic economy, such measures drive up inflation and inhibit growth, which ultimately makes the US dollar more expensive - ironically leading to the exact opposite of what Trump promised his voters.
Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America, therefore assumes that inflation will ultimately force Trump to pursue a policy of lower trade tariffs. But until then, US consumer confidence, which initially rose after Trump's re-election, is suffering considerably: since January 20, it has fallen below the average value of historical recessions - an alarming signal for the economic future of the US.
While the USA is harming itself with protectionist measures, Europe is showing potential for a race to catch up: for decades, its dependence on the USA in areas such as the arms industry and key technologies was little questioned. However, geopolitical pressure is now forcing NATO partners to increase their defense spending. Increased spending not only offers economic potential, but also the opportunity to strengthen technological independence. Increased investment in their own production capacities could open up new growth prospects and improve the competitiveness of European companies on the global market.
In addition to the demand for armaments and the need to decouple from American supply chains, future sectors such as renewable energies, semiconductor production and digitalization could also benefit from this reorientation. Private investors would have the opportunity to participate in this structural change if European companies expand their innovative strength and invest more in domestic infrastructure projects.
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
28.2.2025
Reinhard Panse
While the USA is harming itself with protectionist measures, Europe is showing potential for a race to catch up - an effect that Trump certainly did not take into account during his election campaign.
Whether the new US president is pursuing goals beyond maintaining his power and expanding his wealth remains questionable - especially after Trump raised considerable sums from his supporters by issuing a questionable cryptocurrency. His policies are not only undermining democracy in the US and Europe, but are also damaging the global capital markets.
The recently introduced, then withdrawn and now re-announced tariffs against Canada and Mexico have recently caused considerable unrest. In addition, "Tariff Man" Trump is now also threatening European partners with comprehensive punitive tariffs. However, instead of strengthening the domestic economy, such measures drive up inflation and inhibit growth, which ultimately makes the US dollar more expensive - ironically leading to the exact opposite of what Trump promised his voters.
Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America, therefore assumes that inflation will ultimately force Trump to pursue a policy of lower trade tariffs. But until then, US consumer confidence, which initially rose after Trump's re-election, is suffering considerably: since January 20, it has fallen below the average value of historical recessions - an alarming signal for the economic future of the US.
While the USA is harming itself with protectionist measures, Europe is showing potential for a race to catch up: for decades, its dependence on the USA in areas such as the arms industry and key technologies was little questioned. However, geopolitical pressure is now forcing NATO partners to increase their defense spending. Increased spending not only offers economic potential, but also the opportunity to strengthen technological independence. Increased investment in their own production capacities could open up new growth prospects and improve the competitiveness of European companies on the global market.
In addition to the demand for armaments and the need to decouple from American supply chains, future sectors such as renewable energies, semiconductor production and digitalization could also benefit from this reorientation. Private investors would have the opportunity to participate in this structural change if European companies expand their innovative strength and invest more in domestic infrastructure projects.
About the author
Reinhard Panse
Reinhard Panse is Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of FINVIA Family Office GmbH. Until February 2020, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board and Chief Investment Officer for HQ Trust GmbH, which is owned by the Harald Quandt family. From 2004 until joining HQ Trust GmbH in 2011, Reinhard Panse was Chief Investment Officer of the UBS Sauerborn business unit created within UBS Deutschland AG. From 2001, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board of Sauerborn Trust AG and its legal predecessors. He was responsible for the investment strategy and played a leading role in the holistic asset management and administration of large private assets. Reinhard Panse began his career by taking over capital market and client support activities at Feri GmbH in 1989, after having founded and managed his own wealth management as managing director.