With Donald Trump's renewed election victory, the United States is moving into the focus of the global capital markets. Many investors are betting on an upturn and on Trump - the businessman president will pull the right levers, right?

But while the stock markets are celebrating, a picture is emerging that is reminiscent of an episode from recent economic history: the Japanese bubble in the 1980s, followed by prolonged economic stagnation.

As in Japan, valuations on the US stock market have moved far away from the fundamentals. In the IT sector in particular, dividends and profits cannot keep pace with the rapid price rises. Real estate prices are also rising faster than rents - a typical sign of a bubble. Should the US economy slide into recession, as signaled by leading indicators, overvalued markets could experience abrupt corrections.

Trump's economic policy prescriptions exacerbate the risks: Mass deportations could drive up wages and therefore inflation, which in turn would increase pressure on interest rates. This would be problematic at a time when US debt - whether government, corporate or private - has already reached a critical level.

Trump's protectionist tariff plans are just as worrying. Historically, high tariffs in the US have rarely led to economic growth. Although tariffs could strengthen the dollar in the short term, rising prices for imported goods and possible counter-tariffs are likely to weigh on the economy. US technology companies such as Apple and Tesla, which are heavily dependent on imports from China, would be particularly affected.

The planned corporate tax cut also raises questions. Despite the short-term positive effects on profits and investments, it remains questionable how sustainable this measure is in view of the already high national debt. Clever deregulation could provide lasting relief for the economy - but only if it is implemented responsibly. With Trump, skepticism is warranted due to his often self-serving course.

Capital market outlook