Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
Podcast
When the US Federal Reserve (Fed) warns of an impending crisis in the Chinese real estate sector in its stability report, it is worth taking a closer look. According to the Fed, the crisis could also spread to the USA in an emergency. This may be true, but the impending real estate crisis in China should not cause any problems, at least for holders of shares in Chinese companies. On the contrary.
China is already the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power of national income. If it stumbles, all the nations of the world will feel the impact. At the moment, however, it looks as if only the country's real estate market will be affected. For years, the Chinese government has artificially inflated the market, partly in order to fuel the economy further and further. There are ghost towns where nobody is moving. Condominiums are almost unaffordable - in comparison, conditions in Germany are a paradise - and the real estate companies are massively indebted.
The housing market in particular is facing a slump: Chinese homeowners, who have so far only been fixated on price increases and often do not even rent out their apartments, will soon discover that there are fewer and fewer buyers and tenants. This will be a major problem for them. Investment in the real estate sector will fall massively.
And that, as contradictory as it may sound, is precisely the reason why the country's stock market will remain attractive. Investing in an overvalued market has led to the ghost towns. All this money will flow into the stock market in the future, which in turn will cause share prices to rise. Over the past 30 years, the Chinese stock market has posted an annual performance of 5.1 percent, far below the 8.6 percent of the global stock market. Once the impending real estate crisis is over, equity investors can only benefit in the long term. Long live the Chinese debt crisis.
Reinhard Panse's Perspectives
When the US Federal Reserve (Fed) warns of an impending crisis in the Chinese real estate sector in its stability report, it is worth taking a closer look. According to the Fed, the crisis could also spread to the USA in an emergency. This may be true, but the impending real estate crisis in China should not cause any problems, at least for holders of shares in Chinese companies. On the contrary.
China is already the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power of national income. If it stumbles, all the nations of the world will feel the impact. At the moment, however, it looks as if only the country's real estate market will be affected. For years, the Chinese government has artificially inflated the market, partly in order to fuel the economy further and further. There are ghost towns where nobody is moving. Condominiums are almost unaffordable - in comparison, conditions in Germany are a paradise - and the real estate companies are massively indebted.
The housing market in particular is facing a slump: Chinese homeowners, who have so far only been fixated on price increases and often do not even rent out their apartments, will soon discover that there are fewer and fewer buyers and tenants. This will be a major problem for them. Investment in the real estate sector will fall massively.
And that, as contradictory as it may sound, is precisely the reason why the country's stock market will remain attractive. Investing in an overvalued market has led to the ghost towns. All this money will flow into the stock market in the future, which in turn will cause share prices to rise. Over the past 30 years, the Chinese stock market has posted an annual performance of 5.1 percent, far below the 8.6 percent of the global stock market. Once the impending real estate crisis is over, equity investors can only benefit in the long term. Long live the Chinese debt crisis.
About the author
Reinhard Panse
Reinhard Panse is Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of FINVIA Family Office GmbH. Until February 2020, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board and Chief Investment Officer for HQ Trust GmbH, which is owned by the Harald Quandt family. From 2004 until joining HQ Trust GmbH in 2011, Reinhard Panse was Chief Investment Officer of the UBS Sauerborn business unit created within UBS Deutschland AG. From 2001, Reinhard Panse was a member of the Management Board of Sauerborn Trust AG and its legal predecessors. He was responsible for the investment strategy and played a leading role in the holistic asset management and administration of large private assets. Reinhard Panse began his career by taking over capital market and client support activities at Feri GmbH in 1989, after having founded and managed his own wealth management as managing director.