Analysis of the economy,markets and politics

As the year draws to a close, the capital markets are caught between moderate economic adjustments, persistently high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties.

Investors are currently betting on an upswing. But the euphoria is reminiscent of Japan in the 1980s: strong markets, exuberant expectations.

Geopolitical risks and fluctuations in economic data from the major economic areas of the USA, China and Europe are influencing market sentiment and contributing to uncertainty about the prospects for global growth.

In the run-up to the US presidential elections in 2024, questions about the economic future of the USA are dominating the capital markets. With Donald Trump as the new candidate, a political decision is imminent that is also likely to have far-reaching effects on the capital markets.

In the meantime, the overvaluation of US equities is on a par with the dotcom bubble in 2000, unlike the rest of the world market. So is a new bubble emerging here? And what forecasts can be made for the future?

The inflation rate is rising - and will probably continue to do so over the next ten years. Traditionally, this would have a negative impact on the stock markets. However, thanks to the high level of government debt, this correlation no longer exists.