Share prices in the USA, France and even Germany are reaching new highs as investors believe in interest rate cuts. There no longer seems to be a risk of recession - or is there?

The US economy is currently in a much better position than the European economy. However, this success has come at a high price and is not sustainable. The stock markets in Europe are likely to perform better in the coming years.

Just in time for the Christmas season, numerous capital market outlooks for the year 2024 are being published. Unfortunately, many of the forecasts they contain only have a probability of occurrence corresponding to chance. But there are also serious indications of the future.

For decades, countries have been pursuing risky, debt-based economic policies. In times of climate change and geopolitical instability, this threatens to take its revenge. However, it is doubtful whether they will take the necessary countermeasures.

Central banks have been calculating core inflation using the same formula for 50 years. However, in times of demographic change and protectionist economic policies, this is no longer up to date.

Interest rates have risen more and more recently. Some indicators now show that the high is likely to be reached soon.

The rise in interest rates in 2022 has shaken up the bond and equity markets and led to a historically poor performance. Is the worst now over? Unfortunately, no. But some markets will be hit harder than others.

Regardless of all the uncertainties, the US equity market is threatened with stagnation in the coming decade. Investors looking for decent returns should look to Europe - or Japan.

Experts have long believed that China will soon overtake the USA as the number one economic power. However, forecasts are slowly changing and the Chinese rise seems to have been postponed or even canceled. Why is that?